"It would be in your best interest to accept our generous offer"

The guys at Torrentfreak do a terrific job of covering the torrent and p2p scene. I’m always amazed at the stories they break and the excellent writing. And if I understand it correctly, they do it in their spare time when not at their day jobs.

Last weekend they broke another story that I found particularly interesting. Torrentfreak’s Ernesto reported on DigiRights Solutions (DRS) a German company that published a powerpoint sales and marketing presentation to push its anti-piracy services.

After initially running through some pretty mundane stats about how much online piracy is costing copyright owners, the DRS presentation goes through their process of finding and pursuing users who illegally download songs and movies. They explain that after they find the alleged downloader, they send out an email demanding a payment of 450 euro ($650) per file. DRS keeps 80% of whatever they collect thus leaving 20%, or 90 euro ($130) per download, for copyright holders.

Then suddenly the presentation turns into a pitch comparing the profitability of legal and illegal downloads. Ernesto goes on to report :

“A legal online purchase of a song brings about €0.60 into the pockets of the copyright holders compared to the €90 per alleged file-sharer that pays up. So, the copyright holders get 150 times more from pursuing filesharers than from selling actual music, the company claims.

However, not everyone who receives a letter will pay up, but DRS says that an impressive 25% of all recipients do without asking questions. This figure is much higher than most people assumed previously.

DRS states that it’s realistic to track and pursue about 5,000 filesharers per month per title. Considering that 25% of those people pay the €90, then the copyright holders would have to make about 150,000 online sales. Which is equal to the number of sales that are required for a Gold record award in Germany.”

Needless to say, this is absolutely bizarre and outrageous. Rarely are such blatant attempts made to turn piracy into a profit center, especially when the labels do not have to share this type of revenue with the creators.

Evidently DRS is currently successfully operating in the UK and Germany at the moment, but are clearly looking toward other territories. The fact that the UK government, or any government in fact, would allow such legalized extortion is beyond the pale. I understand that European governments are moving quickly to quash illegal downloading and that’s fine. But to allow and condone the organized extortion of its citizens by a private for profit company heralds new lows in the war against piracy.

This brings to mind the famous confrontation between Joseph Welch and Senator Joe McCarthy at the Army-McCarthy Senate Hearings in 1954 when Welch effectively put an end to McCarthy’s reign of terror when he said “Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?”

© 2009 – 2010, Wayne Rosso. All rights reserved.

But something that I am definitely clear about is my assessment of the Virgin Media/Universal Music service and its potential. At first blush, one would be inclined to celebrate this as a great innovation and a huge step into the future. The media was all frothy about it. After all, the media usually likes to go out there and scratch the surface. But when I started to drill down a bit, I found some nagging, even troubling, details.

First of all, let’s do the math. According to Virgin Media, the 10-15 GBP per month will give you unlimited streaming and mp3 downloads from Universal’s catalog. Fine. But how much will the service be when the other 3 majors are signed on? They’ll certainly want the same amount of dough that Universal is getting. So this will effectively bring the price up to 25-40 GBP a month. That’s a significant price barrier. Many say that 10 GBP is too much. But let’s move on.

So let’s assume that you’ll have a service that is minimally 25 GBP per month, a tough sell by any means. What’s the value? How many itunes does the average user purchase every month? I would suggest certainly not more than 10-15, or the equivalent of 1 CD a month. So what’s to keep someone from subscribing to the service for a month, filling out their entire library with let’s say 3000 tracks, then dropping the subscription and and just purchasing the hit singles they want a la carte on itunes? Nothing. The truth is that the average consumer would actually be overpaying!

This service will only be valuable to extremely heavy music consumers. And when it comes to that type of customer, Spotify represents a much better value at 10 Euros a month (less than 8.5 GBP). In fact,  it is a better value for  casual consumers as well. Spotify offers what no record label sponsored service can: a lush user experience. The labels still don’t get it. It’s not just about their content. Users want a rich experience. It’s all about search and discovery. Spotify has that experience. The labels have consistently failed to deliver on that level. Look to the upcoming Vevo project and you’ll see. Who gives a shit about it. Vevo is just a music video channel on YouTube. So what? Doesn’t really show a lot of creativity on the part of Universal and Sony.  The Virgin Media/UMG service just smells way too corporate. And it will be. Third party services have to be extremely creative in order to compete and the arrogance of major labels makes them think that all they need to do is offer their content. Build it and they will come. Not necessarily. And I’m willing to bet that they’re incapable of building a compelling user experience with an organic, grass roots, music lover’s feel.

Virgin Busts Downloader

Now the troubling part. As part of the trade off, Virgin Media has agreed to use packet sniffing technology to police downloading. Now I ask you, do you want to give up your privacy in order to download all the overpriced music you want? It just doesn’t square. Another thing I’m not sure about is how would Virgin know if you’re illegally downloading something? Can they tell the difference between downloading a bit torrent of a Maria Callas recording that’s in the public domain and one that’s not? If any of you out there can bring some clarity to this, please do so in the comments section. I know that if I were a Virgin Media customer, I’d be on the phone to BT right now to switch my service. It’s a very slippery slope and if Virgin thinks that sucking up to UMG will get them anywhere they’re nuts. I’m sure that they’re also trying to brown-nose the government as well, but you don’t see the other UK ISP’s rushing to duplicate the model. If they did, that could then lead to every ISP snooping on their users and acting as a private police force for record labels. It just doesn’t sit well. The great Peter Kafka made an interesting comment in his ATD post today regarding  the US  music industry saying  ” [individual user] lawsuits are supposed to be relics of the past, replaced by a new strategy whereby music labels convince Internet service providers to help them police piracy. But while the industry floated the concept six months ago, it has yet to get a single cable company or telco to sign on. And even if they do, there’s not a whole lot of incentive for the likes of Comcast (CMCSA) or AT&T (T) to really crack down on music pirates, who don’t take up much bandwidth and don’t steal anything the pipe guys care about”.

And what about competition? Now that an ISP is doing direct deals with the majors, how does this effect the Spotify’s, iTunes, and Passionato’s of the world? Could Virgin make life difficult for these services? What would the EU say about that? I guarantee that the French and Spanish would bitch like crazy. And I don’t see that going over well in the US either. Consumer groups in the US like Public Interest would go ballistic.

What’s interesting is that the market has changed and this model will work, that is if it was 2004. Now, I don’t think so much. The industry, as usual, missed the window of opportunity and is again way behind the curve. The fact it that downloads matter less and less these days with the advent of inventive new streaming models, especially Spotify’s mobile app. In my opinion, the service will get a lukewarm reception at best. There will be an initial surge of interest and then it will die down substantially. Virgin will have done its best to actually lose customers, sending them into the arms of non-meddling competitors. They’ll learn that looking backward will have cost them more than they could ever make from some crappy major label sponsored subscription service. The only ones who win are the record companies. Don’t forget the major label mantra….”Heads, I win. Tails, you lose”.

© 2009, Wayne Rosso. All rights reserved.