But something that I am definitely clear about is my assessment of the Virgin Media/Universal Music service and its potential. At first blush, one would be inclined to celebrate this as a great innovation and a huge step into the future. The media was all frothy about it. After all, the media usually likes to go out there and scratch the surface. But when I started to drill down a bit, I found some nagging, even troubling, details.

First of all, let’s do the math. According to Virgin Media, the 10-15 GBP per month will give you unlimited streaming and mp3 downloads from Universal’s catalog. Fine. But how much will the service be when the other 3 majors are signed on? They’ll certainly want the same amount of dough that Universal is getting. So this will effectively bring the price up to 25-40 GBP a month. That’s a significant price barrier. Many say that 10 GBP is too much. But let’s move on.

So let’s assume that you’ll have a service that is minimally 25 GBP per month, a tough sell by any means. What’s the value? How many itunes does the average user purchase every month? I would suggest certainly not more than 10-15, or the equivalent of 1 CD a month. So what’s to keep someone from subscribing to the service for a month, filling out their entire library with let’s say 3000 tracks, then dropping the subscription and and just purchasing the hit singles they want a la carte on itunes? Nothing. The truth is that the average consumer would actually be overpaying!

This service will only be valuable to extremely heavy music consumers. And when it comes to that type of customer, Spotify represents a much better value at 10 Euros a month (less than 8.5 GBP). In fact,  it is a better value for  casual consumers as well. Spotify offers what no record label sponsored service can: a lush user experience. The labels still don’t get it. It’s not just about their content. Users want a rich experience. It’s all about search and discovery. Spotify has that experience. The labels have consistently failed to deliver on that level. Look to the upcoming Vevo project and you’ll see. Who gives a shit about it. Vevo is just a music video channel on YouTube. So what? Doesn’t really show a lot of creativity on the part of Universal and Sony.  The Virgin Media/UMG service just smells way too corporate. And it will be. Third party services have to be extremely creative in order to compete and the arrogance of major labels makes them think that all they need to do is offer their content. Build it and they will come. Not necessarily. And I’m willing to bet that they’re incapable of building a compelling user experience with an organic, grass roots, music lover’s feel.

Virgin Busts Downloader

Now the troubling part. As part of the trade off, Virgin Media has agreed to use packet sniffing technology to police downloading. Now I ask you, do you want to give up your privacy in order to download all the overpriced music you want? It just doesn’t square. Another thing I’m not sure about is how would Virgin know if you’re illegally downloading something? Can they tell the difference between downloading a bit torrent of a Maria Callas recording that’s in the public domain and one that’s not? If any of you out there can bring some clarity to this, please do so in the comments section. I know that if I were a Virgin Media customer, I’d be on the phone to BT right now to switch my service. It’s a very slippery slope and if Virgin thinks that sucking up to UMG will get them anywhere they’re nuts. I’m sure that they’re also trying to brown-nose the government as well, but you don’t see the other UK ISP’s rushing to duplicate the model. If they did, that could then lead to every ISP snooping on their users and acting as a private police force for record labels. It just doesn’t sit well. The great Peter Kafka made an interesting comment in his ATD post today regarding  the US  music industry saying  ” [individual user] lawsuits are supposed to be relics of the past, replaced by a new strategy whereby music labels convince Internet service providers to help them police piracy. But while the industry floated the concept six months ago, it has yet to get a single cable company or telco to sign on. And even if they do, there’s not a whole lot of incentive for the likes of Comcast (CMCSA) or AT&T (T) to really crack down on music pirates, who don’t take up much bandwidth and don’t steal anything the pipe guys care about”.

And what about competition? Now that an ISP is doing direct deals with the majors, how does this effect the Spotify’s, iTunes, and Passionato’s of the world? Could Virgin make life difficult for these services? What would the EU say about that? I guarantee that the French and Spanish would bitch like crazy. And I don’t see that going over well in the US either. Consumer groups in the US like Public Interest would go ballistic.

What’s interesting is that the market has changed and this model will work, that is if it was 2004. Now, I don’t think so much. The industry, as usual, missed the window of opportunity and is again way behind the curve. The fact it that downloads matter less and less these days with the advent of inventive new streaming models, especially Spotify’s mobile app. In my opinion, the service will get a lukewarm reception at best. There will be an initial surge of interest and then it will die down substantially. Virgin will have done its best to actually lose customers, sending them into the arms of non-meddling competitors. They’ll learn that looking backward will have cost them more than they could ever make from some crappy major label sponsored subscription service. The only ones who win are the record companies. Don’t forget the major label mantra….”Heads, I win. Tails, you lose”.

© 2009, Wayne Rosso. All rights reserved.

Eeeeuuuuu. What's That Smell?

I know that I have been writing a lot lately about EMI. I know that it seems as though I’m beating up on them. But to paraphrase the great Willie “The Actor” Sutton’s response when asked why he robbed banks, “Because that’s where the money is”.

Last week brought lots of news from the ongoing soap opera that is now EMI. Losses, write downs, artist discontent, and what seems like endless executive turmoil have marked the tenure of new owner Guy “Ham” Hands. Mr. Hands, when acting as CEO of EMI, alienated artists and managers to the point that it boiled over into name calling in the press and threatened liable suits. There exists in the UK music industry a group of very influential artist managers who are referred to as “The Black Hand Gang”, and they all have or had important clients signed to EMI. The group includes Jazz Summers, Tim Clark and David Enthoven, Brian Message, Dave Holmes and loosely works together as sort of an ad hoc artists’ rights group in regard to their EMI artists. The Black Hand Gang holds all of the EMI major artist assets and Hands did not make a very good impression on them. So he finally wised up, some would say too late, stepped aside and brought in the perfect man to save the business–an Italian executive experienced in marketing soap suds.

Now things seem to be lurching into high gear. The Rolling Stones, Supergrass and Radiohead left the label and Coldplay only delivered their last mega-selling album on the condition that EMI have absolutely nothing to do with the marketing. Coldplay would handle it themselves and EMI would foot the bill. Then Coldplay decides to give away their next album, a live throwaway compilation, denying EMI some much needed billing. But the UK’s Daily Mail broke the story last week that EMI’s young female superstar Joss Stone is so pissed that she’s actually willing to buy her way off the label! You know you have problems when an artist is actually giving money to a record company.

Prom King Guy With His Queen

To compound the situation, The New York Post also reported on a rift between the once good chums Guy Hands and soap selling EMI CEO Elio Leoni-Sceti. The Post reports that the two came into conflict over EMI North America COO Ronn Werre. It seems that Hands wanted to give Werre a “take it or leave it” offer once his contract had expired. Werre went out and got a better paying job at Sony. Hands got pissed and wanted Elio to hire back Werre at any cost. Elio was embarrassed and Sony sued. So the upshot is that Werre is swinging a big dick, Elio has been emasculated and Hands feels like Henry VIII with a new girlfriend. So don’t be surprised if Ronn Werre suddenly becomes Guy’s new Jane Seymour to Elio’s Ann Bolyn and is crowned queen of the EMI prom.

Jr. Moves To London

And just to prove that all of the action is in London these days, our genealogically advantaged little buddy Edgar Jr. is rumored to be moving there. So how does all of this play into Warner Music’s longstanding effort to gobble up EMI? Pretty well, I imagine. Jr. will now be siting on the sidelines with the ability to quietly stoke the overheated British press and further pick away at the ailing EMI. The Brits look upon EMI as a national trust in a sense. A part of the English fabric. So it will be interesting to see how Jr. will sow the seeds of public discontent with Terra Firma’s ownership of the company.

So who will be the next artist to jump ship at EMI? I have nothing but gut instinct to base this on, but my guess is Robbie Williams, arguably EMI’s biggest star. My guess is that Williams and his management are so disgusted with what’s been happening at EMI that they feel they just don’t need them anymore. Why? Because IE Music, Robbie’s management firm, has a longstanding business relationship with Ingenious Media, the top media investors in Europe and one of the few independent investment firms committed to the music space. And besides, the IE guys know what they’re doing. And they don’t need EMI. At all. And don’t kid yourself–EMI made plenty of dough on the first of what is now called a 360 deal. If you knew how much revenue Robbie Williams generates, mostly outside of the US, it would bring tears to your eyes.

When Terra Firma first took over I was in touch with Guy Hands and company. I was having one of several long conversations with one of Guy’s emissaries one day–they were still moving into the EMI building, it was that early– when I told him that everyone in the record business would do everything they could to make Terra Firma’s EMI fail. He was astonished and asked why on earth that would be. My answer was simple. Schadenfruede. In the music business its not good enough for you to succeed, you must also see your friends fail at the same time. That no matter how progressive EMI planned to be, they would meet resistance from every other label. It ain’t like running rest stops on the autobahn. As it turns out, I was wrong. They’ve fucked up so much that they didn’t need help from anybody.

© 2009, Wayne Rosso. All rights reserved.

There was also an interesting story in the NY Times yesterday about how record companies are becomming more “flexible” in their licensing terms. It’s about time. But my guess it that it is still not enough. Record companies have been stuck in their alternate universe for so long that they still don’t understand that the value of their content isn’t what it used to be. And they have to face the reality that now music is basically free. Anyone can get anything anytime. And suing the masses just doesn’t work. In fact, suing anyone just doesn’t work. So they sue a start up and put them out of business. So what?

When I was with Grokster, one of my mandates was to try to talk sense to the record companies and work with them to convert file sharers into music buyers. I would get one of two answers from every record label: 1) we don’t reward pirates; 2) shut down and then we’ll talk. Naturally both answers were utterly ridiculous. Addressing the later first, the labels were so stupid that they all thought that there was some master switch behind a curtain somewhere that we could flip to completely shut down the network. And they refused to believe it when we swore that was not the case. And even if we were able to shut down the network completely, what good would do to cut off millions of potential customers? They just didn’t understand that once you lose them you’ll never get them back. Just ask Napster.

In the first case, let’s dig into the history of the record industry. To say that they don’t reward pirates is utter fallacy. How do you think that they would combat rogue cd plants in Asia that they could not shut down? They made them authorized distributors! They just couldn’t understand that they could and should employ the same strategy with file sharing companies. Now I will admit, when the file sharing companies were winning in the courts before the Grokster case got to the Supreme Court, some of the p2p guys were getting a bit uppity. But that’s no excuse. The goal was to form an alliance that would work for everyone. The guy who tried to break the logjam was Andy Lack when he became CEO of Sony Music. But that’s another story for another time.

A lot of music people, most visibly Paul McGinnis (U2′s manager) want the ISP’s to protect their content. That’s ridiculous. As is the Warner Music proposal to get ISP’s (or colleges and universities) to pass on a “music surcharge” to its customers, just like a tax on your mobile phone. Also ridiculous. It’s just not the ISP’s job, nor in their best interests to do so. Content owners are responsible for their content, no one else. That’s always been the case. ISP’s are not government agencies and thus are not assigned that responsibility. And the bellicose arrogance that the recording industry has historically displayed have not exactly endeared them to anyone, including their own customers.

Jim Killock, executive director of the The Open Rights Group – a UK based group that works on digital rights and freedoms, told the BBC “We need a compelling ‘all you can eat’ music service to reduce illicit file sharing. But [we need] to remember that extreme enforcement measures would probably be very unfair and make people angry.”

So now we’re here in 2009 and something akin to the Sunni Awakening is being suggested by the NY Times article. But just like the Sunnis, record companies have to avoid overreaching. They have already made the investment climate nearly impossible for start-ups to get viable venture capital, as VC’s have learned not to trust them. The major label deals thus far have made it impossible for a start-up to succeed. What they now have to do is much more than is even suggested in the Times article. They have to truly want new companies to succeed and help them do so instead of looking at them as cash cows for big advance payments and high royalty rates in order to bolster their bottom lines. That was and is harmful short term thinking. What they have to learn is that they are all in it together. A-salaamu ‘alaikum.

© 2009, Wayne Rosso. All rights reserved.

Last week the Sony Corp announced their own bad news, having lost over $1 billion in the last year. Although Sony doesn’t break out its music numbers, we all know that business has been bad all over. Sony has been on its own cost cutting rampage and has been tightening the reins on travel and entertainment expenses. They fired the head of their commercial music operation a couple of months ago, John Ingrassia. Ingrassia was a very highly paid holdover from the Don Ienner days. And they have been aggressively cutting executive pay. But something interesting happened last week. Sony Music sued EMI over an executive. Seems as though EMI exec Ron Werre had signed a deal to move to Sony to take Ingrassia’s spot in 2010 when his EMI contract was up. The deal was to pay Werre the modest salary of $1million a year for three years! Now that’s what I call cost cutting. But after Werre had signed his new Sony contract, he changed his mind and decided to stay at EMI where he was promoted to COO of North America.

Now, let’s examine this.  Is there any doubt that Werre is staying put at EMI for LESS than that $1 million annually that Sony guaranteed him? No fucking way. So that means that EMI is shelling out big bucks for this guy. Once again, terrific cost cutting, guys. Furthermore, is there any way that Werre would agree to stay at EMI unless the company indemnified him? No way. So in order to keep Werre around EMI will be shelling out more than $3 million in salary and another potential $3 million to Sony if they prevail, and, of course, attorney fees.

So my assessment is that Ron Werre must have 14 karat solid gold testicles since somebody thinks he’s worth over $6 million.

You just gotta love how stupid the record business is.

UPDATE: I was talking with a buddy of mine who is a high level industry veteran and he pointed out that there is a bright silver lining in this for Sony. According to my friend, Ron Werre could turn out to be Sony’s biggest profit center of the year!

© 2009, Wayne Rosso. All rights reserved.

© 2009, Wayne Rosso. All rights reserved.

I was listening to the Howard Stern Show last week when Howard, who is a friend of Rick’s, let fly that Rick refuses to talk on the phone any longer. He will only communicate by text message or email. And I think that he’s so crazy that he only communicates with his staff this way, even if they’re in the same room! Howard has recounted on several occasions his story of attending a party at Rubin’s Malibu estate where several celebs were in attendance. The really strange thing was that they weren’t speaking to each other. All of the guests were sitting around the room texting each other. It’s also been reported that, other than the studio, he never leaves his house–everyone has to go to him. So I guess that means that if any Sony guys need to meet with him they have to fly out from New York, go out to Malibu, sit down with Rick in his office and start texting!

As Howard said, when you’re eccentric everyone wants to talk to you. And if Rick started taking calls, no one would want him. Go figure.

© 2009, Wayne Rosso. All rights reserved.